January 31, 2023


Creating Possibilities

Mexico Spending Billions in Electric power Subsidies as Fuel Prices Rise, Pro Analyst Suggests

Provided the large value setting for purely natural gas and the insistence of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador not to raise electricity selling prices, Mexico is probable to pay out much more than 73 billion pesos ($3.6 billion) in electrical energy subsidies this calendar year, Oscar Ocampo, Coordinator for Energy at the Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad (IMCO) instructed NGI’s Mexico GPI. 

“If the elementary source that is applied to crank out 60% of the country’s energy generation gets to be a lot more high priced, obviously electrical power era is going to turn into extra high priced as well,” Ocampo claimed. 

Ocampo has been with IMCO given that 2020, where he operates on energy and overseas trade concerns, primarily those people connected to the implementation of the Mexico-United States-Canada Treaty.

[Ripple Effect: Learn more about the connection between natural gas prices and oil refineries in today’s podcast. Listen now. ]

Prior to IMCO, Ocampo labored as an advisor to the unbiased directors of the Board of Administrators of the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). Ocampo was also a general public affairs marketing consultant at De la Calle, Madrazo, Mancera, S.C., where by he participated in the style and design and analysis of general public procedures, regulation, legislative reforms, sectoral scientific studies, worldwide trade problems and the North American Free Trade Agreement, as nicely as in the evaluation of global greatest procedures for numerous industrial and support sectors.

Ocampo examined Political Science at Universität Hamburg and holds a Master’s diploma in General public Coverage from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Editors Note: NGIs Mexico Gas Price tag Index, a leader monitoring Mexico normal gas sector reform, gives the pursuing dilemma-and-response (Q&A) column as component of a normal interview collection with industry experts in the Mexican pure gas industry. Ocampo is the 86th qualified to take part in the series.

NGI: In some of your latest responses, you have reviewed the impact of the electricity subsidies in Mexico and the influence high all-natural gas costs have on governing administration funds. Can you explain how that dynamic operates?

Ocampo: The presidential assure that López Obrador has recurring time and time yet again is that his federal government won’t maximize electricity costs a lot more than inflation. The nationwide electrical energy premiums that are regulated, which apply to about 97% of household domestic usage in Mexico, are backed. The domestic fee of significant intake isn’t much more than 3% and in conditions of residences, it is not more than 1%. So, the significant bulk of electric power intake in Mexico is sponsored.

So how does that subsidy get the job done? At the finish of the working day, it’s a transfer that the Finance Ministry helps make to the CFE. A person of the modifications of the electricity reform of 2013-2014 was that they took absent the ability of the CFE to make community policy. And the subsidy is a general public policy that assures that the CFE doesn’t have to suppose the price of the subsidy. For that reason, calendar year soon after calendar year, the Finance Ministry would make a payment for CFE subsidies that is in the ballpark of all-around 70 billion pesos ($3.5 billion).

But, what transpires when the pure gas rates see a substantial increase, as we have witnessed this yr? Someone has to believe that price, ideal? CFE does not have to deal with it for the reason that it’s for natural gas, which is the principal gas made use of for electric power era in Mexico. That proportion improvements some month by month, but natural gas is accountable for about 60% of the electrical energy technology in the country. 

So, if the essential source that is applied to generate 60% of the country’s electricity era becomes more expensive, clearly electricity era is heading to turn into additional pricey as nicely. And, presented that the CFE just cannot reflect that in the costs it costs consumers, somebody has to fork out it and, in this scenario, that someone is the Finance Ministry.

NGI: Close to how a lot does the Finance Ministry pay back to protect countrywide electricity subsidies?

Ocampo: If we seem at how a great deal the CFE has budgeted for this calendar year to include subsidies, it is 73 billion pesos ($3.6 billion). Last 12 months it was 70 billion pesos and in 2020 as perfectly. In 2018, it attained a bit additional than 80 billion pesos. And, given the natural gasoline market place situations this 12 months, it is most likely to exceed the budgeted volume, specifically with the president’s recurring assure to not enhance shopper electric power charges extra than inflation and, at the identical time, not have an effect on the financial health and fitness of the CFE. At the conclude of the working day, the CFE is a company with funds that are reasonably balanced and steady.

NGI: With normal gasoline prices so substantial and forecasts indicating they will keep on being that way during the year, do you imagine the energy subsidies the Finance Ministry will have to pay back exceed the 73 billion pesos budgeted?

Ocampo: Probably, yes. The other possibility that you have is to compensate for the subsidies by rising electrical energy costs that are not regulated, this kind of as industrial electricity costs or professional rates. But there is of course a limit as to how significantly you can increase those people. Or you could also improve selling prices in the wholesale electric power marketplace, but that wouldn’t always compensate for what is currently being subsidized for domestic customer use for Mexican properties. So, it is extremely possible that in the quick expression, there will be a deficit or a gap between what was budgeted for this calendar year and the full price tag of the subsidies for this 12 months. And these will have to be coated by the finance ministry. They make these payments during the year.

NGI: In your opinion, are the expanding subsidy fees the finance ministry has to pay out for electricity subsidies a consequence of Mexico’s dependence on the U.S. for pure fuel?

Ocampo: To reply that, I needed to share a determine that I think illustrates the influence of normal gasoline rates therefore significantly in 2022. At the finish of the first half of the yr, via June, the CFE and Pemex had currently paid out 43 billion pesos to include national domestic electrical energy subsidies, that means for the 2nd fifty percent of the yr, they only have 30 billion pesos budgeted for that price. The Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February and has continued, which means that up coming 12 months the budget for subsidies will very likely require to be additional, given that price ranges are considerably elevated in the current environment.

In regards to the partnership with Mexico’s imports of U.S. all-natural fuel, I in fact really don’t see it as also a lot of a trouble or causation for the elevated subsidies. We are located correct up coming to the most aggressive normal gas sector in the earth, and for Mexico, it’s a blessing to be positioned proper following to Texas in conditions of natural gasoline. And, in 2011, when the CFE started its ambitious prepare to extend the network of purely natural gasoline pipelines, I think it was the correct determination, as it linked the regional current market to the U.S. sector.

Even so, the dilemma isn’t the dependency on natural gas imports from the U.S. The issue is that Mexico has just one sole company. This is great in normal situations and Mexico does not operate the possibility of Texas just choosing to shut off the move of purely natural fuel. But what transpires when problems are abnormal, this kind of as the storm in Texas final year? Fuel price ranges proliferated and Mexico wasn’t and isn’t geared up for individuals abrupt improvements in supply and desire, which, at the close of the day, is the definition of energy protection — to be in a position to respond to unanticipated situation and go over countrywide strength demand from customers no matter of the offer problems. 

And that’s the place Mexico’s difficulty lies. And that problem is storage. Mexico doesn’t have sufficient storage terminals. It has three. In total, Mexico has 2.3 days of organic gasoline stock in storage, though most nations around the world in the OECD have no fewer than 30 or 40. So that is definitely where by I see Mexico’s principal concern in relation to pure fuel. I see that as Mexico’s largest threat in phrases of strength protection. You can count on Texas all you want, but when there is an remarkable celebration, Mexico desires storage to offer its individual all-natural gas to meet up with national need.

NGI: Transforming gears a bit, what are your views on the ongoing consultations amongst Mexico, the US and Canada with regards to the United States-Mexico-Canada-Arrangement, or USMCA, and what do you be expecting in the upcoming weeks, now that there is speculation López Obrador will remark on the scenario Sept. 16?

Ocampo: The reality is I have an virtually morbid curiosity about what is going to materialize on Sept. 16. It is appealing due to the fact the president is creating these consultations portion of the community discourse in Mexico, but in the U.S. it’s far more a question of federal government policy. But now that the president of Mexico is earning it aspect of his community discourse and will remark on the consultations with the backdrop of the nationwide flag and in front of the military in the Zocalo in Mexico Town, I think that operates the chance of producing the consultations a community situation in the U.S., and that would not be a positive development for Mexico.

The real truth is, these consultations informally started months back. Even though the system formally began a short while ago, these consultations about the strength sector have been going on for much more time than that, for illustration the 4 visits from U.S. Distinctive Presidential Envoy for Local weather John Kerry to Mexico in the earlier 12 months, or the normal visits by U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar to the National Palace, or the stop by of the U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. It’s been a entire parade of visits, and it isn’t common of the bilateral marriage amongst the two nations to see so numerous substantial rating officials of the U.S. administration come to Mexico to talk about the electrical power marketplace. And, presented that neither side arrived at any form of agreement, the romance became much more sophisticated and therefore the formal consultations commenced.

And now the consultations are a historic issue. Neither the injunctions issued about the USMCA nor the original treaty were fixed with these forms of consultations, and in no way ended up there positions that have been so opposing on every single facet of the discussion, which is the circumstance with the present Mexican energy coverage. So, I assume the chance that these consultations are introduced in advance of a panel are significant, and I feel the intriguing dilemma is to see how much the Mexican governing administration is prepared to go and exacerbate the situation to take care of this conflict.

NGI: Do you think there are out there and feasible channels accessible to remedy the dispute? 

Ocampo: I assume there are distinct ways to arrive at a middle ground. The U.S. and Canada are accusing Mexico of 4 principal points.

The initial is the reform to the Industrial Electricity Legislation (LIE), which I feel might be the most challenging. What could take place is that the LIE, for sensible functions, is suspended and is left in a authorized limbo, which is wherever it is now. That seems likely to maintain as there are lots of injunctions continue to below revision that are upholding the present-day suspension of the reform to the LIE. What the president could do is deliver a concept to the judicial department of the authorities to reaffirm its independence so that the courts regard it and never carry out the regulation. It’s not the perfect state of affairs, but if the present-day limbo is preserved and businesses can nonetheless work, that may well be acceptable in the consultations course of action.

The second matter of debate is that Mexico is getting accused of not awarding permits, this sort of as the import of fuels, storage, distribution, electrical energy era, etcetera. That just one is the least difficult to take care of and could be finished with just just one cell phone simply call. If permits are permitted to be renewed and new types are awarded, problem solved.

The third concern has to do with the extension that was offered to Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to comply with the norms incorporated in Mexican regulation to lower the boundaries of sulfur content in diesel. The extension was awarded for 5 additional yrs. This just one is also uncomplicated to take care of. If Mexico is keen to cut the phrases to two or a few decades or uncover a middle ground, the challenge is solved.

And the previous concern, which is also quite easy to solve, is the latest declaration by the Electricity Ministry that attempts to mandate all private vitality providers to acquire all-natural gasoline immediately from a point out owned entity, CFE or Pemex. This has now been suspended in nationwide courts for illegality, and if you just let it die, it incurs zero political price tag.

So, I assume there are very straightforward and available ways to attain the center floor in these consultations and Mexico can help you save experience as an alternative of going through a panel that could effortlessly rule versus Mexico and weaken the stance of the govt. There are nevertheless a good deal of mechanisms obtainable for Mexico to avoid the worst circumstance state of affairs, which would be new and increased tariffs which could certainly effect and destruction the national economic system. I consider Mexico is going to do all that is attainable to prevent that situation.